How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Eluded Biden
Initially, the Israeli aerial attack on the Hamas militant delegation in Qatar seemed like another escalation that pushed the prospect of peace out of reach.
This strike on 9 September violated the territorial integrity of an US partner and threatened widening the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations appeared to be collapsing.
Instead, it proved to be a key moment that culminated in a agreement, declared by President Donald Trump, to free all captives still held.
That represents a objective that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had pursued for nearly two years.
It is just the initial phase towards a lasting resolution, and the details of Hamas disarmament, administering Gaza and complete Israeli pullout are still to be worked out.
But if this agreement holds, it could be Donald Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that escaped Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's unique style and key alliances with Israel and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this success.
However, as with most foreign policy wins, there were also factors at play beyond the control of either man.
A Close Relationship That Biden Never Had
In public, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
Trump often states that Israel has no better friend, and Netanyahu has called Trump as Israel's "most supportive friend in the White House". Moreover these warm words have been backed up by actions.
During his first presidential term, Trump moved the American diplomatic mission in the country from Tel Aviv to the contested capital and abandoned a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the occupied territories are against international law, the view under international law.
When Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran in the summer, Trump ordered US bombers to strike the nation's atomic sites with its most powerful conventional bombs.
These visible shows of backing may have given the president the leeway to exert more influence on the Israeli government behind the scenes. As per sources, the president's envoy, his representative, browbeat the prime minister in late 2024 into agreeing to a halt in fighting in exchange for the release of some hostages.
After Israel attacked against Syria's military in July, including hitting a place of worship, the US president pressured Netanyahu to change course.
The leader exhibited a degree of determination and pressure on an Israel's leader that is virtually unprecedented, says Aaron David Miller of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "There is no example of an American president literally telling an Israeli prime minister that you're going to have to comply or else."
Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was always more tenuous.
The Biden team's "bear hug strategy" argued that the US had to support the nation openly in order to allow it to influence the nation's military actions in private.
Beneath this was Biden's decades-long of backing for the state, as well as sharp divisions within his Democratic coalition over the conflict in Gaza. Each move Biden took endangered fracturing his own political backing, whereas his successor's loyal conservative voters provided him more flexibility to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, domestic politics or individual ties may have had little impact than the simple fact that, throughout Biden's presidency, Israel was unwilling to make peace.
Several months into Trump's second term, with Iran chastened, Hezbollah to its immediate north greatly diminished and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been achieved.
Business History Assisted Secure Gulf's Backing
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which resulted in the death of a Qatari citizen but not the intended targets, led the president to deliver an ultimatum to Netanyahu. Hostilities had to end.
The US leader had given the Israeli military a significant latitude in the territory. He provided US armed support to Israel's campaign in Iran. But an strike on Qatar soil was a different matter entirely, moving him towards the stance of Arab nations on how best to end the war.
Several Trump officials have told media outlets that this was a decisive moment which motivated the president to apply full force to finalize an agreement.
This US president's close ties with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has business dealings with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. He began each of his administrations with official trips to Saudi Arabia. This year, he also visited in Doha and Abu Dhabi.
His normalization agreements, which established ties between the Jewish state and a number of Arab nations, including the UAE, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
The time he spent in the capitals of the Arabian Peninsula in recent months helped change his thinking, says an expert of the Council on Foreign Relations. The US president did not visit Israel on this Middle East trip but visited the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar where the leader received repeated calls to bring an end to the war.
Less than a month after that attack on Doha, the president was present close as Netanyahu himself called the Qatari leadership to express regret. And later that day, the Israeli leader gave approval on the president's 20-point peace plan for the territory - one that additionally had the support of key Muslim nations in the region.
If the president's relationship with Netanyahu gave him the room to influence Israel to reach an agreement, his history with Muslim leaders may have ensured their backing, and helped them persuade the group to agree to the arrangement.
"A key factor that clearly happened was that the US leader developed influence with the Israeli government, and through intermediaries with the militants," notes an analyst of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"That made a difference. His ability to do this on his own schedule, and avoid yielding to the desires of the warring sides has been a problem that many earlier administrations have struggled with, and Trump seems to do with some success."
The reality that Trump is far better liked in Israel than Netanyahu personally was an advantage that Trump employed to his benefit, he adds.
Currently Israel has agreed to freeing over a thousand Palestinians held in its jails and has consented to a partial withdrawal from Gaza.
Hamas will free all the captives still held, living and dead, taken during the original 7 October Hamas attack, which caused the death of over 1,200 Israelis.
A conclusion to the conflict, which has resulted in the destruction of the territory and the deaths of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal